Monday, October 12, 2009

Ratings Based Racing: Are You confused?

By David Gately

Finding winners in the horse racing game is never easy and has actually become more tricky with the implementation of 'ratings-based racing' over the last 18 months. Ratings based racing is forcing punters to look more closely at weights and measures in lining these gallopers up.

in late 2006, a review of the possibility of implementing ratings-based racing, found that Victorian trainers in all corners of the state overwhelmingly supported the retention of Ratings Based racing. This is highlighted by the fact that 94% of trainers in Victoria supported the keeping this form of handicap racing.

Whilst there are many advantages RBH (Ratings-Based Handicapping) offers, it must be remembered that it will not always provide the same adjustments that are usually afforded by "discretionary" handicapping. (i.e. using human opinion to issuing a horse's weight) We cannot expect that a horse having a "ratings" adjustment after a particular race, will meet each runner that finished in front of him or her in that race, on better terms in the next race.

One professional punter mostly overlooks computer generated ratings though. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com (who can boast a strike-rate of around 85% winners from his top-rated runners - an amazing stat) says, "I simply look for the horses coming through the strongest races. I line up weights and certainly relative times, but rule no.1 always has to be: Is the horse good enough to win the race. Sounds funny when you say it out loud, but it's pretty simple".

The interesting thing with horses is their propensity to improve sharply from one run to another if early in their career, or early in their preparation. This is why it is imperative to notice the warning signs of a horse with significant improvement in him/her. If a horse is very 'green' (i.e. inexperienced, does things wrong) it can have tremendous scope to improve. If a horse is early in his/her campaign, it's fitness levels might not be where they are required to be and again, he/she may improve lengths at a subsequent run. Form guru David Gately says "Once you know the horses, you will know their patterns, and you will find more winners!"

Finding value runners is always the way professional punters have operated, there are many favourites that run that have little hope of actually winning. These horse's are referred to as "unders" (under their true odds of winning) and when identified can set you up for a nice collect if you can work around them in betting. How do we identify such 'unders'? Well, it gets back to knowing each horse and his/her particular likes and dislikes. David Gately from OzRacingForm.com thinks this is rule No.1. He explains: "Look, knowing a horse's capabilities, his likes or dislikes, his personality if you like, are keys to having half this battle (of finding value runners/winners) won".

I hope this helps you on your next outing, good luck and see you at the track

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